Who Can Win in November? A guide to 'electability,' as the voting draws nigh

Even at this late date, more than half of all voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say they have not made up their minds for sure. Many are still deciding which candidate they think would make the best president. But thousands of others are wrestling with a more cold-blooded question: who can win in November?

Most early head-to-head polls show John McCain and Barack Obama as the strongest candidates in a general election, a reflection of their slight edge over their primary opponents among independents, who make up at least a third of the electorate and often determine the outcome.

But "electability voters" need more than polls. With the stipulation that 10 months is an eon in politics, let's make some educated guesses about the pros and cons of how each of the plausible candidates would do in the Big Show.

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I probably won't have my mind made up with 100% certainty until the moment I mark my ballot but in all likelihood, I think I would prefer to vote for Barak Obama even though I do not believe he can win a general election. I don't think the scum of society with all its racist blatherings (which you can find in plentiful supply on many right-wing messageboards) is enough to keep Barak Obama from winning. I do believe a general lack of confidence in his ability to lead just because he doesn't have much of a track record in national leadership will keep him from winning an election.

Hillary is fifty-fifty. I think she is the best qualified in terms of national and world experience for the job but she has a lot of negatives. If she was the only name on the ballot, I think there would still be a significant portion of the voting public who would come out to vote against her if that was an option on a Hillary-only ballot.

I can't think of a single Republican candidate that I would consider voting for. I think I am most closely aligned, politically speaking, with the candidacy of Rudy Guiliani but I think his past numerous ethical challenges are good reasons to be concerned. I don't think I can vote for him. Pity.

Even with all the rats scurrying to desert the sinking Bush ship, I do believe he is going to drag the entire Republican Party down with him. The Republicans have not seen an election disaster like this looming since the Watergate era.

It's all up to the Democrats now. Will they follow their own usual course and shoot themselves in the foot, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? Really, '08 is the Democrats' election to lose.